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2024-12-14 01:03:50

Treasury futures closed in early trading, with 30-year main contracts up 0.74%, 10-year main contracts up 0.41%, 5-year main contracts up 0.28% and 2-year main contracts up 0.09%.Ye Fan, Southwest Securities: In 2025, the upward trend of domestic economy will continue, and it is estimated that the annual RRR will be lowered by about 100bp. The Central Economic Work Conference will be held in Beijing from December 11th to 12th. Ye Fan, chief economist of Southwest Securities, said that in 2025, the domestic economy will continue to stabilize and upward under the policy. From the structural point of view, infrastructure and manufacturing investment are expected to remain the main support items for domestic investment next year, and the decline in real estate investment will gradually narrow; Domestic demand is expected to play a stronger role in stimulating the economy than external demand, and domestic residents' consumption is expected to continue to pick up under the policy. Regarding the direction of fiscal and monetary policies, Ye Fan predicted that the issuance scale of ultra-long-term special government bonds will be around 1.5 trillion -2 trillion yuan in 2025, and it will continue to support the "dual" areas. In the first half of next year or the peak of government bond issuance, there may be a RRR cut for hedging. It is estimated that the RRR cut will be about 100bp for the whole year, and the interest rate cut will be decided by camera. The interest rate cut of 25bp-40bp may be promoted step by step.Bai Zhongen: Under special circumstances, short-term breakthrough in deficit and debt may help solve long-term problems. Bai Zhongen, president of Tsinghua University Institute of Economics and Management and vice chairman of the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce, said that in the understanding and implementation of policies, there are sometimes some stereotypes, which make us bound by these stereotypes. Breaking these constraints is very important for our policy understanding and policy implementation. The first mindset is that it will bring moral hazard if the central government helps local governments pay their debts. The second mindset, in the past, some people insisted that the deficit should not exceed a certain proportion and the debt should not exceed a certain proportion. He bluntly said that the upper limit of debt and deficit also depends on short-term and long-term. In the long run, we can't have too many deficits and too many debts. Therefore, when we encounter special circumstances in the short term, we should allow the deficit and debt to exceed a certain ratio.


Ocean Shipping Group: In the first 11 months, it achieved sales of 30.6 billion yuan. On December 12, Ocean Shipping Group (03377.HK) released unaudited operation data. In November, the company achieved an accumulated sales of about 3.73 billion yuan. The agreed sales floor area is about 346,300 square meters; The average agreed sales price is 10,800 yuan per square meter. In the first 11 months of this year, COSCO achieved a cumulative agreed sales of about 30.6 billion yuan; The cumulative agreed floor area is about 2,544,100 square meters; The cumulative average agreed sales price is about 12,000 yuan per square meter.Huayi Brothers Dianji Animation Film Co., Ltd. is operating abnormally. Tianyancha App shows that recently, Huayi Brothers Dianji Animation Film Co., Ltd. was listed in the list of abnormal operations by Shanghai Xuhui District Market Supervision Administration because it could not be contacted through the registered residence or business premises. Huayi Brothers Touching Animation Film Co., Ltd. was established in March 2016. Its legal representative is Wang Zhonglei, with a registered capital of 200 million yuan. Its business scope includes film distribution, film screening, film production, production of audio-visual products and electronic publications, etc. It is wholly owned by Huayi Brothers.Ministry of National Defense: The PLA Military Orchestra will perform in Vietnam. Wu Qian, spokesman of the Ministry of National Defense: At the invitation of the Vietnamese Ministry of National Defense, the China People's Liberation Army Military Orchestra will send a team to perform in Vietnam from December 14 to 23 to participate in the celebration of the 80th anniversary of the founding of the Vietnamese People's Army. This move will help deepen the traditional friendship between the Chinese and Vietnamese armed forces and expand the cultural exchanges between the two armed forces.


State Power Investment Corporation set up an economic and technological research and consulting company with AI software development business. According to the enterprise search APP, recently, State Power Investment Corporation Economic and Technological Research and Consulting Co., Ltd. was established, with the legal representative of He Yongjian and the registered capital of 10 million yuan. Its business scope includes: artificial intelligence application software development; Information system integration service; Industrial Internet data service; Social and economic consulting services, etc. Enterprise survey shows that the company is wholly owned by State Power Investment Group Co., Ltd.Tianyuan Environmental Protection set up a construction engineering company in Xinjiang. The enterprise search APP shows that recently, Xinjiang Tianyuan Construction Engineering Co., Ltd. was established with Xuan Wang as its legal representative and a registered capital of 50 million yuan. Its business scope includes: construction; Subcontracting of construction services; Construction professional work, etc. Enterprise investigation shows that the company is wholly owned by Tianyuan Environmental Protection.The Indonesian rupee fell to its lowest level against the US dollar since early August, falling by 0.4% in the day.

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